Where Exactly Is Jamil Wilson Getting His Points From?

Full Disclosure: I loves me some Jamil Wilson.

When Jamil Wilson pulled up and hit a 3-pointer to pull Marquette within 6 of Pitt early in this past Saturday's game, I was curtly reminded by a certain Racine resident that sits near me that I said that "Jamil isn't a good outside shooter." Now it is true that I have gone on the record as being skeptical of Jamil's prowess as a jump shooter. But when I was reminded of this stance, and reflected up on what we have seen thus far this season, I had to wonder: Am I short changing Jamil as an outside shooter?

In the interest of full disclosure, I must say that I am very fond of Jamil Wilson and what he has done for the Golden Eagles this year. I am pleased with the way he's played, the way he's done the little things that have been asked of him, the way he carries himself as a leader and stabilizing influence on the floor. I dig it all. So when I stopped and considered the idea that my preconceived notions might be preventing me from acknowledging what I was actually seeing take place, I decided to do a little research. Maybe this Horlick Rebel was right. Maybe I was wrong. Perhaps Jamil is shooting better, and getting more points from jumpers than I had realized. So, with the help of our friends at statsheet.com I went back through the play by play logs of each game to determine if the evidence showed that I had this all wrong.

After the jump, find out if Mr. K was in fact terribly mistaken

In short... Nope, not really.

I broke down Jamil's shooting, by shot type: Lay-ups and dunks vs. Jumpers and 3-pointers (Note: "Jumpers" include any 2-point shot that wasn't a lay-up or dunk. So a stand-still J with a foot on the 3-point line counts the same as a runner in the lane. I know it's not a perfect system, but it was the best I could do without going back and watching all the game film.) and this is how it shook out.

Shot Type

Makes

Attempts

Shooting %

Points

% of points scored

Jumpers/ 3s

13

48

27.1%

30

34.9%

Lay-Ups/Dunks

18

27

66.7%

36

41.9%

So what does all of that mean? Well, not much really, other than when Jamil steps away from the bucket, the chances of him making that shot go down significantly. That is, of course, true for pretty much ALL basketball players (except for maybe Steve Novak). To really understand the impact of these numbers, we would need to compare them to someone else's - like Jae Crowder perhaps. (Note: Jae has attempted 221 FGs this season, I don't have that kind of time). But I suspect, since Crowder is shooting over 50% from the floor and 37% from distance, the gulf between the close ones would not be quite as wide. Also, it bears pointing out that these FGs only account for 76.8% of Jamil's points scored. The other 23.2% come from the free throw line, a place he is less likely to visit when shooting treys or 18-footers.

And just so we're all clear: I'm not saying I don't ever want Jamil shooting 3s or attempting any shot other than a lay-up. I think he's a serviceable shooter, that is taking what shots come to him within the offense (Though I might argue that the offense needs to do a better job of getting him the shots that are more effective, but that's a different post). However, my original take that shooting the J is not the optimal method for Jamil to look for his offense appears to be vindicated. Bring on the Belle City fans that wish to tell me otherwise!

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