|2012 - Trent Lockett
Minimum Expectations: Add that all together, and combine it with the fact that he's playing in a new system in a new city for a new coach with a bunch of cats he's known for four months, and you've got a bit of a pickle. At the least, then, let's pen Trent in for a 25% reduction in his junior-year numbers. That leaves him right around 10 points, 4.5 boards, and 1.5 assists per game. Again, and for emphasis' sake: that's the floor.
In My Wildest Dreams: Lockett becomes a poor (but not too poor) man's version of Jerel McNeal in 'Rel's senior year, when McNeal added an impressive three-point shot to his offensive arsenal. Lockett hit 41.2% of his triples last year, and he was good on 49.8% of his field goal attempts overall (and that represented a slight decrease from his 51.6% clip in his sophomore year), so -- fingers crossed -- maybe that's not too much of a stretch. If Lockett can put up 15 points a game and average five boards and a couple of helpers, while knocking down the turnovers to, say, two per game, I'd be a very happy boy.
In My Worst Nightmare: He can't make the adjustments he needs to, whether it's struggling with not being the clear alpha dog on the team, to getting overwhelmed by the quality of the competition in the Big East, to going into a funk when he realizes he traded 80-degree January days at ASU for having to take a team of sled dogs to the Al McGuire Center for practice. (Though dude's from Minnesota, so the miserable winters shouldn't come as that much of a surprise to him.)
Now: I don't think that nightmare scenario is all that likely. Things might be rocky for a spell, but I think Lockett's too good, too talented, and too smart (how many other kids would load up on 21 credits per semester to graduate in three years so they could transfer to a program closer to home?) for the doomsday situation to happen.
At first glance, it might look like Trent Lockett didn't really live up to expectations at Marquette, at least based on what we were thinking back in late October/early November. But here's a possibility, which fits what we did see: Lockett arrived on campus, realized that he had skills that fit into what the team needed, and focused on doing what he knew he could do. He was still capable of a scoring outburst (13 points on three different occasions, 16 points on a fourth), but he knew he didn't have to worry about that end of things.
Instead, he became a glue guy. He grabbed five or more rebounds in 17 different games, including hitting 11 in two of Marquette's four NCAA tournament games. He had three or more assists on nine different occasions. To dig deeper on advanced stats, he kept his offensive rating essentially the same from his junior year (100.1 to 99.9), but cut his usage way down (22.7% of possessions used down to 18%). I don't have stats on this one, but I know for a fact that more than one game had a definitive Trent Lockett blocked shot, bringing about the term "Trent Blockett" on Twitter.
Best Game: This is how Rubie assessed Lockett's play against Georgetown back in January when he awarded Lockett player of the game honors:
We've been kinda hard on Trent Lockett around these parts -- and had Greg Whittington hit that third free throw after Lockett tackled him on a desperation three-point attempt with 2 seconds left, we'd probably be hard on him again today -- but he was mostly great against the Hoyas, finishing with 9 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks, including another swatted jump-shot attempt in the final minute of a game. He also appeared to know that (1) he should miss his free-throw attempt with one second left in the game and (2) he needed to hit the rim for the attempt to count, even if John Cahill and Co. didn't.
Season Grade (1-Worst Nightmare to 10-Wildest Dreams): He wasn't the shooter we expected, or even the scorer we hoped for, but Trent Lockett wrapped up his college eligibility in outstanding fashion. He was a dependable cog in a machine that eventually came together for one of the most successful seasons in Marquette history. On top of that, he earns a place in Marquette fans' memories as being the player who got an NCAA rule changed when he was charged with one of the most inexplicable flagrant fouls in known history during the NCAA tournament game against Butler. I can't give him a 10 because of the scoring, but I can definitely give Lockett an 8.