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The College Football Anarchist's Guide To Week 11

All of the top five teams in the College Football Playoff committee's top 25 are in action, as long as you consider playing an FCS team to be "in action."

Yep, those Oregon throwbacks are awfully sweet.
Yep, those Oregon throwbacks are awfully sweet.
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports

Teams #1-3 are probably in very little danger of losing this week, but there's a big risk down there for #4 and #5.  You might almost consider this the college football equivalent of what golfers refer to as "Moving Day."  Not only are those two facing challenges, but there's also #6 taking on #7 and #9 playing #10, and a serious challenge for #8, too.  It's entirely possible that the top five looks incredibly different come Tuesday night.

As always, all rankings are the College Football Playoff committee's rankings, all times are Central, and all lines are courtesy of Bovada.

#1 Mississippi State (8-0) vs Tennessee-Martin (5-5)

When: 3:00pm on SEC Network
Line: Nope.
Chances Of Losing: As Low As You Can Get
Possible Chaos Level: Extinction Level Event

Hey, the Skyhawks are on a four game winning streak! That's gotta mean something... oh, wait, they're an FCS team.  Never mind.  Here's a fun game: what has the higher margin of victory: this game or Marquette vs UT-Martin in basketball next week Friday night?

Seriously, though, if the Bulldogs lose, do we have to presume that the entire SEC West is actually not that great?

#2 Florida State (8-0) vs Virginia (4-5)

When: 5:30pm on ESPN
Line: Florida State -20
Chances Of Losing: Very Low
Possible Chaos Level: Very High

Let's be honest: there's a very real chance that FSU falls behind early again in this game, leading to everyone getting excited.  Then Jameis Winston will lead them to victory in the second half, and it'll probably turn into a blow out by the end of the game.

A loss here will leave Mississippi State as (presumably) the only undefeated team left in the country the only undefeated team that the playoff committee cares about. That will start the questions about whether FSU deserves to keep their spot or if another one loss team should jump into the fray.

#3 Auburn (7-1) vs Texas A&M (6-3)

When: 2:30pm on CBS
Line: Auburn -23.5
Chances Of Losing: Low
Possible Chaos Level: Very High

Hey, remember when the Aggies were ranked #6 in the country?  Ah, yes, back in the days before they lost three straight SEC games, including getting completely plowed into the earth by Alabama.  Waaaay back before Kenny Hill got suspended for gosh knows what, although apparently Hill lost his starting quarterback job before that happened.

Now they're giving more than three TDs to the Tigers.  With the long list of one loss teams, a loss here will probably completely end Auburn's shot at a playoff slot, although they do still have games against Georgia and Alabama left on the docket.

#4 Oregon (8-1) at #17 Utah (6-2)

When: 9pm on ESPN
Line: Oregon -8.5
Chances Of Losing: Medium High
Possible Chaos Level: Very High

Hey, welcome back to the four team bubble, Ducks! Now go to Salt Lake City and beat a Utes team that inexplicably didn't move in the CFP ranking after losing in overtime to Arizona State last week.  What? I'll admit I'm not the closest follower of Utah football, but I figured they had gone 2-2 to open the season and had won four straight to get to where they are now.  Hell, their other loss is to 2-7 Washington State.  The hell are they doing ranked?

The Utes do have a history of pulling an upset, with wins over then-#8 UCLA and then-#20 USC this season.  Still, I don't see Oregon slipping up now that they've gotten a second lease on life after losing to Arizona.

#5 Alabama (7-1) at #16 LSU (7-2)

When: 7pm on CBS
Line: Alabama -6.5
Chances Of Losing: Very High
Possible Chaos Level: Low

WAIT.  Wait wait wait wait wait wait.  I can get Les Miles and his 46-3 record in Saturday night home games PLUS nearly a full touchdown's worth of points?  I get that Nick Saban is one of three coaches to actually go into Death Valley under the lights and get a win, but COME ON.

Alabama losing this game isn't going to affect the playoff picture, at least regarding the Crimson Tide.  But at what point do we have to start looking at LSU if they swing the win here?  Wins over Wisconsin, Ole Miss, and Alabama, with their two losses coming against teams (Miss. St. & Auburn) that are already in the playoff?  I mean, just saying.

Bonus games to pay attention to that might be important if one of these top five teams loses, because both teams involved have just one loss:

  • #6 TCU vs #7 Kansas State, 6:30pm on Fox
  • #8 Michigan State vs #14 Ohio State, 7pm on ABC
  • #9 Arizona State vs #10 Notre Dame, 2:30pm on ABC