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Your 2015 Big East Men's Soccer Tournament Scenarios

Hey, just because Marquette's out of it doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention.

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into the final day of the regular season for women's soccer, we knew the six teams that would be in the Big East tournament, but we didn't know where anyone would be seeded.

Here, on the men's side, only two of the 10 teams in the Big East - Marquette and Seton Hall - have been completely eliminated from the postseason, leaving eight teams vying for six tournament spots.  Within those eight teams, we have three different tiers:

  • Georgetown & Creighton, who will finish 1-2 in some order
  • Xavier & Butler, who will finish 3-4 in some order
  • Everyone else

In a wild freak chance of fate, two of the final five matches of the season are Xavier at Butler and Creighton visiting Georgetown.  How's THAT for excitement??

While it makes for a very exciting final day of play, it does limit some of the fun of these kinds of posts.  You'll see what I mean as we look at what each team is trying to do on the final day of the season.

1) Georgetown (8-0-0, 24 points)

Final Match: vs Creighton, 1pm Central, BEDN

Win or draw, and the Hoyas finish conference play undefeated, and thus will have sole control of the Big East regular season title.  With a loss, Georgetown will share the regular season title with Creighton, but they'll be the #2 seed in the tournament, as Creighton will get the head-to-head tiebreaker.

2) Creighton (7-1-0, 21 points)

Final Match: at Georgetown, 1pm Central, BEDN

The only route the Jays have to the #1 seed after their loss to Xavier last week is by defeating Georgetown.  They'd be the #1 seed with the win, but they'll have to settle for being co-champs with the Hoyas.  A draw keeps them three points behind Georgetown, and a loss drops them to six points back, but still untouchable by Xavier for second  place.

3) Xavier (5-2-1, 16 points)

Final Match: at Butler, 6pm Central, BEDN

As mentioned at the top of the page, Xavier can't get any higher than third place, but they also can't go any lower than fourth place.  They'll host one of the two quarterfinal matches for sure, it's just a matter of whether they're hosting as the #3 or #4 seed.  With a one point lead on the Bulldogs, Xavier can win or draw in their final match and still keep third place.  Butler can only pass them with by earning the three points from the head to head win.

4) Butler (5-3-0, 15 points)

Final Match: vs Xavier, 6pm Central, BEDN

Butler must win in order to be the #3 seed in the Big East tournament.  That's all that's on the line for them, though, as Providence and DePaul can't catch them, were the Bulldogs to lose or draw with the Musketeers.  The Butler Bowl will host one of the quarterfinal matches for sure, it's just a matter of who the opponent will be.

5) Providence (3-4-1, 10 points)

Final Match: vs St. John's, 6pm Central, BEDN

Win, and the Friars get to keep the #5 seed.  Draw, and Providence has to start looking around for help to keep them in the Big East tournament.  If they finish the match against the Red Storm in a tie, then PC will need either a DePaul loss or draw OR a Villanova loss or draw.  If Providence loses to St. John's, then it gets touchy.

The Red Storm will have passed them for sure, but if DePaul loses to Marquette as well, then PC & DPU will still be knotted at 10 points.  Given that the two teams went to a scoreless draw, I don't know where the next tiebreaker is coming from, but PC does hold the edge in the standings right now.  All of that would be rendered moot if Villanova wins their match, though, as VU would pass both Providence and DePaul.

6) DePaul (3-4-1, 10 points)

Final Match: vs Marquette, 1pm Central, BEDN

The smartest thing that the Blue Demons can do for their postseason hopes is beating Marquette.  Anything else and their chances start diminishing quickly.  If they draw with Marquette, it gets kind of confusing because of Providence and St. John's playing each other.  You'd think that PC losing would be good for DePaul, but that would launch St. John's into a tie with the Blue Demons, and SJU won the regular season contest.  DePaul's best bet in case of a draw with Marquette would be a Providence/St. John's draw and a Villanova loss or draw.

If Marquette pulls what amounts to an upset at this point, then DePaul will be hoping to see Villanova and St. John's both lose, as that'll be the only thing that will keep the Blue Demons in the field.

7) Villanova (3-5-0, 9 points)

Final Match: at Seton Hall, 12pm Central, BEDN

On the outside looking in to start with, Villanova has to beat Seton Hall for anything else to matter.  They're stuck in the unfortunate circumstance of playing in the first of the five games on the day, so the Wildcats will have to get the three points and then just start crossing their fingers.

It's possible that Villanova could be okay with a draw against SHU along with losses by Providence and DePaul.  That would put all three of those teams into a tie at 10 points.  The downside there is that two of the three would be eliminated, as the PC loss gives St. John's three points and pushes the Red Storm up to 11 points.

Lose and they're out.  Period.

8) St. John's (2-4-2, 8 points)

Final Match: at Providence, 6pm Central, BEDN

The Red Storm have to beat Providence.  Anything other than three points from this road contest means they're done.

If they get the win, then we can start looking at the help they need.  They'll need DePaul to not win, as they'd beat the Blue Demons in a tiebreaker thanks to a 2-0 win earlier this season.  St. John's would also need either a loss or a draw from Villanova, and that would mean Seton Hall picking up either their first win of the season or their second draw of the season.