Your 2017 Big East Women’s Soccer Tournament Scenarios

The Big East women’s soccer season draws to a close on Thursday with all 10 teams in action. Thanks to the scheduling gods giving Georgetown and DePaul home games on the final day, not everyone will be starting at the same time, but it’s still the final chance for teams to make a move in regards to their Big East tournament seeding, or, in one case, pushing their way into the field.

We’ll go through the standings from the top down and let you know 1) where they are now, 2) who they’re playing on Thursday, and 3) where they could end up in the tournament field, win, lose, or draw.

I’ll warn you about this off the top, though: Villanova, Creighton, and Seton Hall have all been eliminated from postseason play already.

Ready? Here we go.

Georgetown Hoyas - 5-1-2, 17 points

Last Game: at home vs Xavier, 1pm Central, Big East Digital Network

As the team currently in first place, the Hoyas have their destiny in their hands. Beat Xavier, and they win the regular season title outright as well as lock up the #1 seed in the tournament. If Georgetown draws with Xavier, then they would have to hope for draws or losses from both Butler and Providence in order to stay atop the table.

If Georgetown loses to Xavier, then things get very interesting. The combination of a Georgetown loss along with draws by both Butler and Providence would create a four-way tie for first place. The tiebreakers get hinky past merely head to head between two teams, but Georgetown already has a record of 0-1-1 against Butler and Providence. Dropping to 0-2-1 against the other three in the theoretical four-way tie could send the Hoyas tumbling as far as the #4 seed.

Butler Bulldogs - 4-0-4, 16 points

Last Game: at home vs Villanova, 6pm Central, Big East Digital Network

Providence Friars - 5-2-1, 16 points

Last Game: At Creighton, 7pm Central, Big East Digital Network

Ok, so, because the Bulldogs and Friars are tied, they are in the exact same scenarios. Ok, yes, there’s the mess of that possible four-way tie I mentioned in the Georgetown section, but just stick with me here. If Butler and Providence end up with the same points at the end of the day on Thursday, Butler will end up with the better seed line between the two thanks to a 2-1 overtime win back on October 1st.

They can’t finish worse than fourth place, that much we know. Both teams can win the regular season title outright, but they would need a win, the other one to lose, as well as Georgetown to lose or draw. If they draw and Xavier beats Georgetown, that puts Butler/Providence into a tie with both the Musketeers and the Hoyas. I guess the fun part of all of this is that it all might be moot by kickoff of their games. The Georgetown game will be wrapped up by 3:30pm at the latest, and if the Hoyas have already won, then Butler/Providence are just fighting to decide who finishes second and who finishes third.

Xavier Musketeers - 4-2-2, 14 points

Last Game: at Georgetown, 1pm Central, Big East Digital Network

The Musketeers may be in the most precarious position you can be in while still knowing you’ll be in the conference tournament. Beat Georgetown and catch a break of both Butler and Providence losing? That means a tie with the Hoyas for the regular season title and, by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker, the #1 seed in the tournament and home field throughout. If Xavier combines a win with draws by either Butler or Providence (or both), that means a tie for the Big East title with that team, or possibly a three-way tie. Xavier holds the head-to-head advantage in a tiebreak with Providence, but who knows what will break the tie with Butler, as the two teams went to a scoreless draw in the regular season.

A draw by Xavier puts them at 15 points and means they can’t finish better than fourth. It also puts them at risk for sixth place, as both Marquette and St. John’s are sitting on 12 points and both hold the tiebreaker edge on the Musketeers. Obviously then, a loss by Xavier would hold the same risk of sixth place.

Think about it. Xavier can finish anywhere from regular season champs and the #1 seed to outright sixth place. They could literally end up with any of the six seeds in the tournament.

Marquette Golden Eagles - 4-4-0, 12 points

Last Game: at Seton Hall, 6pm Central, Big East Digital Network

Now, as you’ll see in a minute, Marquette is currently tied with St. John’s at 12 points. However, there’s a unique circumstance that’s stopping me from joining up the Golden Eagles and the Red Storm like I did with Butler and Providence.

Marquette still has a chance to host a quarterfinal game. They will need to beat currently winless Seton Hall to do it, along with getting a Georgetown win or draw over Xavier. That will put MU at 15 points, Xavier at either 14 or 15, and thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker, that would put the Golden Eagles in as the #4 seed in the tournament.

That’s as high as they can go, though, and fifth or sixth place is still on the table, but that’s it. Marquette has definitely clinched a spot in the field. If Xavier beats Georgetown, MU can’t finish better than fifth. A win over Seton Hall would clinch 5th place at worst, though, as would a draw along with a DePaul victory over St. John’s. The Golden Eagles would finish sixth if they draw and St. John’s beats DePaul.

St. John’s - 4-4-0, 12 points

Last Game: at DePaul, 3pm Central, Big East Digital Network

As you’ve probably figured out by now, the circumstance is thus: The Red Storm currently hold the sixth and final spot in the field by nature of losing a head-to-head tiebreaker with Marquette. By luck of the draw, they’re playing seventh place DePaul in their final match. Beat the Blue Demons, and the Red Storm are in for sure. Maybe in fourth place, if Georgetown wins or draws and Seton Hall wins or draws, maybe in fifth place if Xavier wins and Seton Hall wins or draws, maybe in sixth place if Xavier wins and Marquette wins.

They’re out if they lose.

That would give DePaul 13 points, and even if Marquette loses to Seton Hall as well, the Golden Eagles would get the sixth and final spot thanks to the tiebreaker. St. John’s just needs a point of any kind and they’re in.

DePaul Blue Demons - 2-2-4, 10 points

Last Game: at home vs St. John’s, 3pm Central, Big East Digital Network

DePaul has to win. They have no other path into the field. A draw with the Red Storm would only move them to 11 and even with a Seton Hall win over Marquette, the Golden Eagles would still have 12 points, enough to keep DePaul out.

The Blue Demons also can’t do better than fifth place. They would get there with a win and if Seton Hall beats Marquette, but they can’t catch anyone else. If Marquette gets at least a draw with the Pirates, then DePaul can’t do better than sixth place, thanks to MU’s 2-0 win in Chicago earlier this season.